The headline story in the Arizona Jewish Post this week was a report on the 2012 March of the Living and the joy that my fellow Tucsonan Bill Kugelman felt in being part of it
The March of the Living is a 24-year old program that has involved more than 200,000 participants since its inception. On its website it states its mission as follows:
The March of the Living brings students from around the world to march from Auschwitz-Birkenau on Yom Hashoah in memory of all Holocaust victims. After visiting other places of Nazi persecution and sites of Jewish life in Poland, many participants travel to Israel, the homeland of the Jewish People.
I have many friends who have participated in this program over the years and found it to be a memorable and worthwhile experience.
Bill is an 88-year-old Holocaust survivor who has lived in Tucson for almost 50 years and has devoted a large part of his life to educating others and sharing his memories and knowledge about the horrors of the Holocaust.
It is clear that his concentration camp experiences of almost 70 years ago have played a major role in shaping his world view and his life even today. His presence on the trip must have added great value since he was able to walk with the young people as someone who actually lived in the places they were seeing and could tell them how it felt to be part of the history they were trying to recreate in their own minds.
When Kugelman was asked what he hoped to accomplish and why he agreed to go on the trip at the age of 88, he said something that really got my attention.
"If Jewish parents want their kids to remain Jewish, to have a spark of Jewishness, they need to know the price of Jewishness."
Kugelman, speaking sincerely based on his own very real life experience, seems to view the message of the Holocaust in Jewish terms--a narrative that he finds every bit as relevant today as he did back then. The Nazis were the latest in a long line of people who have hated Jews and came after us. He believes that any Jewish parent who wants his child to remain Jewish owes it to that kid to teach him about the Holocaust so he will know how high that price might be.
Near the end of the article, a teenager from Tucson who also went on the trip talked about why the trip was such a transformative and meaningful experience to him. After spending time in Auschwitz and then in Israel on a trip that is choreographed to highlight the Jewish journey from death and despair to hope and prosperity, Benjamin Bressler said,
"I cannot stress how important the trip is. Not just because you are Jewish but because you are human."
Benjamin's comment provides what is to me a more contemporary perspective. And on top of that, it really reflects a more Jewish perspective as well. Our Torah and our values have always obsessed on ways to make the world a better place for all people--not just a safer place for Jews.
That is in no way to diminish the very real respect and gratitude that I feel toward Bill and the many other survivors for their tireless effort to create programs and museums and curricula to make sure that the world never forgets the atrocities committed during the Holocaust.
For the vast majority of the world's Jews who live in Israel and the U.S., the Holocaust years are truly a reflection of a time in history and a mindset that are an important memory--not a measure of our current reality. In Israel and the U.S. today, Jews enjoy lives of unprecedented power, prosperity, and are widely sought out as friends, business partners, neighbors, and spouses by those around us who are not Jewish.
Both Kugelman and Bressler loved participating in the March of the Living and thought it was important and life changng. It gave the teenager, gave him a first-hand sense of the story of the Holocaust and how it led to the return of the Jews to the State of Israel. And it showed him how horrible and cruel humans can be to one another and that we need to be vigilant to make sure that kind of behavior doesn't happen on our watch.
But for the Holocaust survivor, the point of the story is uniquely Jewish. No parent should allow his child to remain Jewish unless that child understands they will pay the price of being universally tormented by the outside world that will always hate and want to destroy us.
As happens with shocking frequency, I found a line in this week's Torah portion (with the help of my friend and teacher Rabbi David Segal of Aspen) that brought this news story into sharper focus. After outlining dozens of commandments that people are required to follow in their daily lives, God launches into a long and daunting list of curses that will befall those who ignore his instructions and act badly.
One of the more subtle curses--but obviously an important one since it is repeated twice in Leviticus 26:17 and again a few pages (or a turn of the wrist) later in 26:36--is that those who are truly cursed are those who live in constant fear of dangers that are no longer real.
I will cast a faintness into their hearts...The sound of a driven leaf shall put them to flight. Fleeing, as though from the sword, they shall fall, though none pursues. With no one pursing they shall stumble over one another as before the sword. They will not be able to stand their ground. (Leviticus 36:36-37).
I receive several emails daily from fellow Jews who want to make sure I know how anti-Semitism is alive and well and, in the opinion of many, worse than ever. I am constantly being warned by very sincere people that I must remain vigilant in fighting and, in the words of my friend Bill Kugelman, know the very high price that comes with being Jewish. Meanwhile, I look around and just don't see it. In fact, we are surrounded by signs of the opposite--love, acceptance, and respect for and appreciation of Judaism and Jewish values by my non-Jewish friends.
Is this the fulfillment of God's warning as we all read in the Torah just this week? That we will be self-afflicted with the fear and outrage and anguish that leads to the perpetual feeling of victimhood and the need to flee, even when no one is chasing us? Is this part of the price we are paying for the inability of so many Jews to treat others in a civil manner?
Perhaps many Jews are doomed to suffer from that curse unless and until they can learn, as so many younger Jews have, to opt for Jewish values, wisdom, ethics, and ritual observance as a treasure that will lead to happier, more productive, and more meaningful lives instead of only seeing being Jewish as a high-priced burden that those who choose to remain Jewish are doomed to bear.
There is a more full-blown blog in that line and it will be coming. But for now, I just wanted to share what started as a random musing that, when seasoned with a little Torah wisdom, became something much more.
Sunday, May 20, 2012
Saturday, March 24, 2012
Live from the J Street Conference
Kristen and I will be here in Washinton for the next three days for our second J Street National Conference I would encourage all Jews and others who care deeply about the future of Israel and the American Jewish community to follow live at www,jstreet.org or to check out the videos on line.
The conference hasn't even started yet and I've already had a chance to connect and reconnect with a number of Jewish journalist friends from the U.S. and Israel and to have meaningful conversations with Amos Oz, Jeremy Ben Ami and others
I have been to many Federation General Assemblies, AIPAC local and national events, and other Jewish gatherings and haved really enjoyed and learned from then all. But right now today, J Street is tapping into a void that we desperately need to fill.
We have to have a venue where Jews who care about Israel to come and vigorously debate the challenges that face us. Not just to stand and applaud every five seconds and hear speech after speech designed to pander to the wealthiest and politically significant Jews and others who have already made up their minds what policies regarding Israel should be. We don't need another booster club where the kinds of serious debates about morality and values are banned instead of encouraged.
We need a venue where the implications of the actions of American political leaders and the Israeli government and religious leaders are discussed by people who care about Israel's chances for survival as a Jewish democracy and on what it the actions of the Jewish state has on the practical meaning of Jewish values, wisdom, and ethics.
Where the external threats are acknowledged and discussed along with--not instead of--the moral implications of actions taken in the name of all Jews everywhere.
So far more than 2500 people have shown up for the opening plenary. Thousands of caring rabbis, students, and Jews like me. I am really looking forward to the next couple days and will be sharing my thoughts here.
The conference hasn't even started yet and I've already had a chance to connect and reconnect with a number of Jewish journalist friends from the U.S. and Israel and to have meaningful conversations with Amos Oz, Jeremy Ben Ami and others
I have been to many Federation General Assemblies, AIPAC local and national events, and other Jewish gatherings and haved really enjoyed and learned from then all. But right now today, J Street is tapping into a void that we desperately need to fill.
We have to have a venue where Jews who care about Israel to come and vigorously debate the challenges that face us. Not just to stand and applaud every five seconds and hear speech after speech designed to pander to the wealthiest and politically significant Jews and others who have already made up their minds what policies regarding Israel should be. We don't need another booster club where the kinds of serious debates about morality and values are banned instead of encouraged.
We need a venue where the implications of the actions of American political leaders and the Israeli government and religious leaders are discussed by people who care about Israel's chances for survival as a Jewish democracy and on what it the actions of the Jewish state has on the practical meaning of Jewish values, wisdom, and ethics.
Where the external threats are acknowledged and discussed along with--not instead of--the moral implications of actions taken in the name of all Jews everywhere.
So far more than 2500 people have shown up for the opening plenary. Thousands of caring rabbis, students, and Jews like me. I am really looking forward to the next couple days and will be sharing my thoughts here.
Sunday, March 4, 2012
J Street and AIPAC--"Eilu v' Eilu"--These and These are the Words of Being Pro Israel
Many centuries ago, contentiousness among the followers of two great Jewish rabbinic leaders became so toxic and destructive to the community that God felt the need to personally intervene.
Rabbi Hillel and Rabbi Shammai were great sages who disagreed constantly and had very different views regarding how Jews should behave in almost every situation. Then, according to Rabbi Michelle Missagheih:
"So the students of Hillel and Shammai, two schools of thought concerning Jewish law, continue debating for three years and then the Talmud says, “A bat kol – a voice from God – came forth and said "eilu v’eilu divray elohim chaim hen,” meaning “both these and these are the words of the living God.” This is amazing. God is the one who gets fed up with the fight! God can’t take it any more and says “enough is enough. Both of you are right. You both have legitimate approaches to law and life.”
Another implication is that if we take what the Talmud says seriously, and I do, then there is no “truth” with a capital “T.” Being “right” is not the goal. Rather the goal is remaining engaged in the discussion."
I watched the opening session of the AIPAC Conference in Washington this morning--a conference I have attended in person in the past. It reminded me of why that organization is so compelling to so many Americans who care about Israel.
The AIPAC conference has sufficient political clout and gravitas to attract government leaders such as Shimon Peres and Barack Obama to appear at its opening session. And no booster club in the world does a better job than AIPAC of producing multi-media introductions and choreographing events to elicit the maximum positive effect. I cried during the video introduction to Shimon Peres. It made me feel proud to be a Jew.
In a couple of weeks, Kristen and I will again attend the J Street Conference in Washington (in the same room in which Peres and Obama spoke today) to hear former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert talk about the critical bonds that connect the U.S. and Israel and to praise J Street for the important role it plays in furthering that process.
As an American Jew who cares deeply about Israel and our Jewish community here at home, It seems both logical and obvious that fellow Jews who share those feelings should rejoice that we have two powerful organizations supporting Israel and trying to secure and promote its future.
And yet, none of my many Jewish friends who support AIPAC can understand how in the world I can be involved in a leadership position at J Street. Most of them read and .forward emails (and, in Tucson, have listened to Yom Kippur sermons) which demonize J Street as being anti-Israel and committed to a Palestinian triumph over the critical interests Jewish people and our homeland. Although those friends have strong negative feelings about J Street, I have yet to meet one that has ever visited the J Street website or attended a J Street event.
Conversely, many of my J Street friends are surprised to learn that I am chairing my second Federation annual campaign and believe that AIPAC is an important and valuable part of the Jewish mosaic in our country. They believe that AIPAC is a tool of the Right wing government leaders in Israel and the U.S. who are committed to an Israeli triumph over legitimate interests of the Palestinians, Jewish values, and the need for a two-state solution to the problems in Israel and the West Bank.
I respect the concerns of all those friends--each of whom I sincerely believe cares deeply about the future of Judaism and our community. But they have apparently bought into the mantra of American politics that if we disagree about anything, then for me to be right, you have to be wrong. To them I recommend Rabbi Brad Hirschfield's important book which clearly states the opposite--"You Don't Have to Be Wrong for Me to Be Right." It provides a different and much needed perspective.
But the truth of the matter is that J Street and AIPAC are not competitors. They are separate organizations with the common agenda of supporting Israel in very different ways.
AIPAC is a pro-Israel booster club--an advocacy and marketing organization. Its stated mission is to lobby U.S. citizens and our political representatives to support whatever actions the Israeli government chooses to take. It is an important job and they do it with passion. Its leaders and followers tend to be Americans (more and more of whom are not Jewish) who view Israel and Jews as the perpetual victims and underdogs facing constant existential threats from hostile neighbors who was determined to destroy Israel and the Jewish people.
Although the AIPAC Conference is just underway, I am confident that all of the conversation and presentations will focus--accurately--on Israel's many accomplishments against overwhelming odds and on the threats to that country's very existence that it faces on a daily basis from hostile neighbors. There will be no mention of Operation Price Tag or illegal confiscation of Palestinian land to build settlements or the occupation of the Palestinians that is now in its 45th year. That's not what a booster club does.
J Street is a pro-Israel group whose core belief is that a peaceful two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian situation is the only way that Israel can continue to exist as both a democracy and a Jewish state. Its leaders and followers tend to be American Jews (including a majority of our county's young Conservative and Reform rabbis and cantors) who view the 45-year occupation of West Bank Palestinians by Israeli Jews as a demographic time bomb and a test of whether the Jewish values, ethics, and wisdom that have guided us through centuries of powerless exile can survive in an unprecedented environment where Jews actually have power.
What an amazing testimonial to the power and wisdom of our Jewish community that we have two such organizations--each with thousands of donors and tens of thousands of supporters and followers here and Israel co-existing in a country where just a few decades ago Jews suffered from widespread discrimination and few were willing to raise their voices in support of Israel in a public setting.
Sadly, politics and passion have prevailed and I seem to be among the very few who are actually celebrating this victory for Jewish community and pluralism. Instead, the voices of angry demonizers seem to be the only background music.
As he was introducing Barack Obama this morning, AIPAC president Lee Rosenberg emphasized that Obama was speaking at AIPAC, "THE central address of the pro-Israel community." In my opinion, Rosy didn't need to say that, but I would have really been upset if he said AIPAC is the ONLY address of the pro-Israel community which I regret to report than many of my friends believe.
On the flip side, I have J Street friends who can't believe that I still find AIPAC to be an important and positive piece of the pro-Israel mosaic and not just a tool of the pro-Israel and Republican Right.
According to the Jewish wisdom and values that have sustained us for millenia, they are missing the whole point. What matters is that we recognized what God felt compelled to remind us during a similar time--that these and these are both acting out God's will and it is the acknowledgement and rejoicing in that facts that makes us truly holy.
J Street and AIPAC--these and these--are what being pro-Israel is all about.
Those who don't get and understand that are desecrating God's words and our glorious pluralistic tradition in a fruitless effort to achieve short term political gain.
May the same God who blessed us with the insight of "eihu v'eilu" give those well-meaning people the insight to understand the error of their ways and the great harm they are doing to the Jewish community, Israel, and the United States. For the sake of us all.
Rabbi Hillel and Rabbi Shammai were great sages who disagreed constantly and had very different views regarding how Jews should behave in almost every situation. Then, according to Rabbi Michelle Missagheih:
"So the students of Hillel and Shammai, two schools of thought concerning Jewish law, continue debating for three years and then the Talmud says, “A bat kol – a voice from God – came forth and said "eilu v’eilu divray elohim chaim hen,” meaning “both these and these are the words of the living God.” This is amazing. God is the one who gets fed up with the fight! God can’t take it any more and says “enough is enough. Both of you are right. You both have legitimate approaches to law and life.”
Another implication is that if we take what the Talmud says seriously, and I do, then there is no “truth” with a capital “T.” Being “right” is not the goal. Rather the goal is remaining engaged in the discussion."
I watched the opening session of the AIPAC Conference in Washington this morning--a conference I have attended in person in the past. It reminded me of why that organization is so compelling to so many Americans who care about Israel.
The AIPAC conference has sufficient political clout and gravitas to attract government leaders such as Shimon Peres and Barack Obama to appear at its opening session. And no booster club in the world does a better job than AIPAC of producing multi-media introductions and choreographing events to elicit the maximum positive effect. I cried during the video introduction to Shimon Peres. It made me feel proud to be a Jew.
In a couple of weeks, Kristen and I will again attend the J Street Conference in Washington (in the same room in which Peres and Obama spoke today) to hear former Israeli prime minister Ehud Olmert talk about the critical bonds that connect the U.S. and Israel and to praise J Street for the important role it plays in furthering that process.
As an American Jew who cares deeply about Israel and our Jewish community here at home, It seems both logical and obvious that fellow Jews who share those feelings should rejoice that we have two powerful organizations supporting Israel and trying to secure and promote its future.
And yet, none of my many Jewish friends who support AIPAC can understand how in the world I can be involved in a leadership position at J Street. Most of them read and .forward emails (and, in Tucson, have listened to Yom Kippur sermons) which demonize J Street as being anti-Israel and committed to a Palestinian triumph over the critical interests Jewish people and our homeland. Although those friends have strong negative feelings about J Street, I have yet to meet one that has ever visited the J Street website or attended a J Street event.
Conversely, many of my J Street friends are surprised to learn that I am chairing my second Federation annual campaign and believe that AIPAC is an important and valuable part of the Jewish mosaic in our country. They believe that AIPAC is a tool of the Right wing government leaders in Israel and the U.S. who are committed to an Israeli triumph over legitimate interests of the Palestinians, Jewish values, and the need for a two-state solution to the problems in Israel and the West Bank.
I respect the concerns of all those friends--each of whom I sincerely believe cares deeply about the future of Judaism and our community. But they have apparently bought into the mantra of American politics that if we disagree about anything, then for me to be right, you have to be wrong. To them I recommend Rabbi Brad Hirschfield's important book which clearly states the opposite--"You Don't Have to Be Wrong for Me to Be Right." It provides a different and much needed perspective.
But the truth of the matter is that J Street and AIPAC are not competitors. They are separate organizations with the common agenda of supporting Israel in very different ways.
AIPAC is a pro-Israel booster club--an advocacy and marketing organization. Its stated mission is to lobby U.S. citizens and our political representatives to support whatever actions the Israeli government chooses to take. It is an important job and they do it with passion. Its leaders and followers tend to be Americans (more and more of whom are not Jewish) who view Israel and Jews as the perpetual victims and underdogs facing constant existential threats from hostile neighbors who was determined to destroy Israel and the Jewish people.
Although the AIPAC Conference is just underway, I am confident that all of the conversation and presentations will focus--accurately--on Israel's many accomplishments against overwhelming odds and on the threats to that country's very existence that it faces on a daily basis from hostile neighbors. There will be no mention of Operation Price Tag or illegal confiscation of Palestinian land to build settlements or the occupation of the Palestinians that is now in its 45th year. That's not what a booster club does.
J Street is a pro-Israel group whose core belief is that a peaceful two-state solution to the Israel-Palestinian situation is the only way that Israel can continue to exist as both a democracy and a Jewish state. Its leaders and followers tend to be American Jews (including a majority of our county's young Conservative and Reform rabbis and cantors) who view the 45-year occupation of West Bank Palestinians by Israeli Jews as a demographic time bomb and a test of whether the Jewish values, ethics, and wisdom that have guided us through centuries of powerless exile can survive in an unprecedented environment where Jews actually have power.
What an amazing testimonial to the power and wisdom of our Jewish community that we have two such organizations--each with thousands of donors and tens of thousands of supporters and followers here and Israel co-existing in a country where just a few decades ago Jews suffered from widespread discrimination and few were willing to raise their voices in support of Israel in a public setting.
Sadly, politics and passion have prevailed and I seem to be among the very few who are actually celebrating this victory for Jewish community and pluralism. Instead, the voices of angry demonizers seem to be the only background music.
As he was introducing Barack Obama this morning, AIPAC president Lee Rosenberg emphasized that Obama was speaking at AIPAC, "THE central address of the pro-Israel community." In my opinion, Rosy didn't need to say that, but I would have really been upset if he said AIPAC is the ONLY address of the pro-Israel community which I regret to report than many of my friends believe.
On the flip side, I have J Street friends who can't believe that I still find AIPAC to be an important and positive piece of the pro-Israel mosaic and not just a tool of the pro-Israel and Republican Right.
According to the Jewish wisdom and values that have sustained us for millenia, they are missing the whole point. What matters is that we recognized what God felt compelled to remind us during a similar time--that these and these are both acting out God's will and it is the acknowledgement and rejoicing in that facts that makes us truly holy.
J Street and AIPAC--these and these--are what being pro-Israel is all about.
Those who don't get and understand that are desecrating God's words and our glorious pluralistic tradition in a fruitless effort to achieve short term political gain.
May the same God who blessed us with the insight of "eihu v'eilu" give those well-meaning people the insight to understand the error of their ways and the great harm they are doing to the Jewish community, Israel, and the United States. For the sake of us all.
Thursday, January 12, 2012
Investment Outlook for 2012--The More Things Change...
I believe that 2012 will be the fourth straight rewarding year for investors who can sleep at night and deal with the very real headline risks that will whip the markets around on a daily basis. I further believe it is an excellent time to be invested in outstanding American companies that are earning record profits, some of which selling at levels we have not seen since I first got into the business more than three decades ago.
More about where we are headed and why in a minute. First, let’s look back on the year just ended and see what we have learned.
On one level, 2011 was an extremely volatile period for the investment markets. It seemed that every day the focus would shift from one economic “crisis” to the next with the headlines of the moment combining with the steroids of high-frequency computer trading to whip the market up, down and around on an hourly basis.
We went from periods of angst about the budget deficits to concerns about the U.S. unemployment rate to fears of the effect of tax increases to the catastrophic implications of a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating to worries about a double-dip recession to the Congressionally-created threats of a U.S. default to the grim speculation over the impact of a Chinese slowdown to the current doomsday scenarios regarding the future of European Union and the economic and financial disruptions that are still being touted as a likely outcome of a full-blown crisis in that part of the world.
Each of these looming disasters was labeled a crisis by the disaster-addicted media—at least until they completely dropped the story the next day—and the ebb and flow of hourly headlines had the ability to create “risk-on” euphoria or “risk-off” despair—sometimes with several of each taking place during the same trading day. And, for the most part, the accompanying frenzies disappeared as quickly as they had appeared and the media spotlight and obsession moved on to the next disaster du jour.
And yet if someone went to sleep on January 1, 2011 and woke up on New Year’s Eve, he would think that things had been pretty calm since all the stock market averages ended the year about where they started. So who were the real experts—those who told us we needed to make daily adjustments to our holdings or face calamity or the guy who slept through it all and didn’t change a thing?
This obvious attempt at sarcasm should not suggest that there aren’t serious issues that hang like a cloud over the future of our economy and that there aren’t real problems out there. Far from it.
Our media’s addiction to crises has distracted investors from the real underlying story. After a real cataclysmic, system-threatening financial meltdown in 2008 followed by three years of rehab, high unemployment and slow economic activity, there seems to be evidence that things are getting better across a whole variety of data points and the slow steady economic recovery of the last two years is finally gaining some real traction. More jobs are being created every month, fewer people are submitting new claims for unemployment, and consumer confidence is rising.
At a time when stock prices across a broad swath of companies ranging from Apple to McDonald’s to IBM to Union Pacific to Nike to Philip Morris trading at or near all-time highs in revenues, earnings, and stock prices and most market averages up almost 100 percent over the last three years, many investors still fear the market and have been steering their purchases to so-called safe havens such as gold and U.S. treasuries.
My plan for 2012 is similar to my approach in 2011. Investors should be positioned in quality companies which are showing outstanding growth in revenues and profits, solid management, a history of raising dividends and distributions in industry sectors that seem likely to benefit from an improving economy and rising confidence. In summary, I believe 2012 should be very much like 2011 in a number of respects—only better.
Those sectors that were favored in 2011 (energy, agriculture, oil and gas pipelines, and life-changing technology) should continue to do well. If the economy and sentiment continue to improve, sectors such as industrials, banks, and home builders could end their multi-year bear markets and finally make a turn to the upside. Even though the headlines remained bad during the fourth quarter, some of the largest gains were registered by housing related investments. Many of the bank stocks have spiked sharply in recent weeks as well. It is an area we will continue to watch.
The headlines will be far different in 2012 as the presidential campaign kicks into full swing. The Republicans will certainly continue to convince Americans that we have been suffering mightily from the policies of President Obama while Democrats will try to focus on all of the many hopeful signs I have mentioned above. As usual, the pundits will do their best to stir the pot and create controversy and confusion.
Meanwhile, I will continue to keep my eye on the data which, at least recently, have shown signs of significant and hopefully sustainable improvement.
Buy good stocks and live a long time. That has been my mantra for more than 30 years. For the first 20 years, it worked like a charm. Not much has worked for anyone during the last 10 years. Now the whole idea of long-term investing has been thoroughly rejected by luminaries such as Jim Cramer and a broad range of high-speed hedge fund traders (many of whom lost quite a bit of their clients’ money last year).
Hopefully, this will be the year that we are all fully rewarded for our belief and confidence in some of our country’s premier companies. Obviously, there are event risks, but I believe there are greater risks to losing both money and/or buying power to those who load up on cash, bonds and gold in the name of safety than to those who buy quality companies at reasonable prices.
More about where we are headed and why in a minute. First, let’s look back on the year just ended and see what we have learned.
On one level, 2011 was an extremely volatile period for the investment markets. It seemed that every day the focus would shift from one economic “crisis” to the next with the headlines of the moment combining with the steroids of high-frequency computer trading to whip the market up, down and around on an hourly basis.
We went from periods of angst about the budget deficits to concerns about the U.S. unemployment rate to fears of the effect of tax increases to the catastrophic implications of a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating to worries about a double-dip recession to the Congressionally-created threats of a U.S. default to the grim speculation over the impact of a Chinese slowdown to the current doomsday scenarios regarding the future of European Union and the economic and financial disruptions that are still being touted as a likely outcome of a full-blown crisis in that part of the world.
Each of these looming disasters was labeled a crisis by the disaster-addicted media—at least until they completely dropped the story the next day—and the ebb and flow of hourly headlines had the ability to create “risk-on” euphoria or “risk-off” despair—sometimes with several of each taking place during the same trading day. And, for the most part, the accompanying frenzies disappeared as quickly as they had appeared and the media spotlight and obsession moved on to the next disaster du jour.
And yet if someone went to sleep on January 1, 2011 and woke up on New Year’s Eve, he would think that things had been pretty calm since all the stock market averages ended the year about where they started. So who were the real experts—those who told us we needed to make daily adjustments to our holdings or face calamity or the guy who slept through it all and didn’t change a thing?
This obvious attempt at sarcasm should not suggest that there aren’t serious issues that hang like a cloud over the future of our economy and that there aren’t real problems out there. Far from it.
Our media’s addiction to crises has distracted investors from the real underlying story. After a real cataclysmic, system-threatening financial meltdown in 2008 followed by three years of rehab, high unemployment and slow economic activity, there seems to be evidence that things are getting better across a whole variety of data points and the slow steady economic recovery of the last two years is finally gaining some real traction. More jobs are being created every month, fewer people are submitting new claims for unemployment, and consumer confidence is rising.
At a time when stock prices across a broad swath of companies ranging from Apple to McDonald’s to IBM to Union Pacific to Nike to Philip Morris trading at or near all-time highs in revenues, earnings, and stock prices and most market averages up almost 100 percent over the last three years, many investors still fear the market and have been steering their purchases to so-called safe havens such as gold and U.S. treasuries.
My plan for 2012 is similar to my approach in 2011. Investors should be positioned in quality companies which are showing outstanding growth in revenues and profits, solid management, a history of raising dividends and distributions in industry sectors that seem likely to benefit from an improving economy and rising confidence. In summary, I believe 2012 should be very much like 2011 in a number of respects—only better.
Those sectors that were favored in 2011 (energy, agriculture, oil and gas pipelines, and life-changing technology) should continue to do well. If the economy and sentiment continue to improve, sectors such as industrials, banks, and home builders could end their multi-year bear markets and finally make a turn to the upside. Even though the headlines remained bad during the fourth quarter, some of the largest gains were registered by housing related investments. Many of the bank stocks have spiked sharply in recent weeks as well. It is an area we will continue to watch.
The headlines will be far different in 2012 as the presidential campaign kicks into full swing. The Republicans will certainly continue to convince Americans that we have been suffering mightily from the policies of President Obama while Democrats will try to focus on all of the many hopeful signs I have mentioned above. As usual, the pundits will do their best to stir the pot and create controversy and confusion.
Meanwhile, I will continue to keep my eye on the data which, at least recently, have shown signs of significant and hopefully sustainable improvement.
Buy good stocks and live a long time. That has been my mantra for more than 30 years. For the first 20 years, it worked like a charm. Not much has worked for anyone during the last 10 years. Now the whole idea of long-term investing has been thoroughly rejected by luminaries such as Jim Cramer and a broad range of high-speed hedge fund traders (many of whom lost quite a bit of their clients’ money last year).
Hopefully, this will be the year that we are all fully rewarded for our belief and confidence in some of our country’s premier companies. Obviously, there are event risks, but I believe there are greater risks to losing both money and/or buying power to those who load up on cash, bonds and gold in the name of safety than to those who buy quality companies at reasonable prices.
Monday, October 3, 2011
The Rick Perry Mezuzah --Update
I guess I'm behind the curve on this story but I have to admit that it continues to grow on me.
In late June, Governor Perry signed into law a bill that prevents Texas homeowner's associations or condo boards from outlawing the placement of mezuzot no longer than 25 inches on the doorposts of their houses and, presumably upon their gates. The bill was introduced by a state representative after two his constitutents moved out of their apartment after being told they had to remove a mezuzah from their door frame. The couple said they pushed for the new law to protect the rights of other Jews in the future.
Perry, whose credentials as a friend of Israel and the Jewish people are now carved in Jerusalem stone as far as I'm concerned (see previous article), signed it into law immediately.
Within weeks, Tablet Magazine reported The Mezuzah Store had commissioned a strictly limited edition Rick Perry 26 inch Texas-Sized Mezuzah. The work of art is non-compliant under Texas law but was clearly designed to be a priceless collector's item which pushes the legal limits yet another inch further.
The last time I looked, this one-of-a-kind masterpiece was still available for only $999.99 although the inclusion of scroll upgrades ranging from Kosher to Superior to Alter Rebbe could jack the price up to $1,100.
Among the responses received to this article was one from a gentleman who thought a mezuzah was "one of those obnoxious horns that people blow at soccer matches" and thought 25 inches sounded about right to him. Another was from a more knowledgeable respondant who expressed the oft-repeated opinion that "anything over 8 inches is just showing off."
I hope to hear from my rabbinic scholar friends on the halacha regarding whether size matters and to what extent.
In late June, Governor Perry signed into law a bill that prevents Texas homeowner's associations or condo boards from outlawing the placement of mezuzot no longer than 25 inches on the doorposts of their houses and, presumably upon their gates. The bill was introduced by a state representative after two his constitutents moved out of their apartment after being told they had to remove a mezuzah from their door frame. The couple said they pushed for the new law to protect the rights of other Jews in the future.
Perry, whose credentials as a friend of Israel and the Jewish people are now carved in Jerusalem stone as far as I'm concerned (see previous article), signed it into law immediately.
Within weeks, Tablet Magazine reported The Mezuzah Store had commissioned a strictly limited edition Rick Perry 26 inch Texas-Sized Mezuzah. The work of art is non-compliant under Texas law but was clearly designed to be a priceless collector's item which pushes the legal limits yet another inch further.
The last time I looked, this one-of-a-kind masterpiece was still available for only $999.99 although the inclusion of scroll upgrades ranging from Kosher to Superior to Alter Rebbe could jack the price up to $1,100.
Among the responses received to this article was one from a gentleman who thought a mezuzah was "one of those obnoxious horns that people blow at soccer matches" and thought 25 inches sounded about right to him. Another was from a more knowledgeable respondant who expressed the oft-repeated opinion that "anything over 8 inches is just showing off."
I hope to hear from my rabbinic scholar friends on the halacha regarding whether size matters and to what extent.
Rick Perry's Two-Foot Mezuzah Sealed the Deal For This Jew
Ever since I met Rick Perry in Aspen a couple months ago (before he was an official candidate) I have been convinced that he had a combination of attributes that would likely win him the Republican presidential nomination. (Actually, now I'm not so sure but I digress).
That was before I knew about all his close Jewish friends and his great, unshakable support for Israel. But he truly became my BCF (Best Chaver Forever) when I learned from this article in today's Jewish Daily Forward that Perry changed Texas law to allow gonga mezuzahs of more than two feet in length (batteries optional) to be installed on condominium door frames. We all know that size matters--particularly when it comes to mezuzot--and it's nice to see that Perry believes in taking care of his friends and co-religionists who share his refutation of the theory of evolution.
That and more can be found in the article which is a treasure trove of good news for Jewish voters and which also features a picture that is suitable for framing.
Perry's obvious love for Israel and the Jewish people as well as his astute diplomatic skills have also been on display during the last month. Prior to the U.N. speeches by Netanyahu, Abbas, and Obama, Perry held a news conference with Likud Knesset leader Danny Danon who is bringing a bill to a vote next week calling for Israel to annex the entire West Bank and end all this foolish talk about a Palestinian state once and for all.
Perry honed in on President Obama's "arrogant" attitudes toward Israel and repeatedly criticized Obama's tactics of "appeasement" toward the Palestinians--a subtle yet skillful attempt to conjure up illusions of Neville Chamberlain appeasing that bad guy in Germany a few decades ago.
Of course this news conference was taking place as Obama was infuriating the Palestinians with his strong speech supporting Israeli rights, Netanyahu was praising Obama and stating that our president deserved a "medal of honor" for his strong and instantaneous efforts to save those trapped in the Israeli embassy in Cairo, and Obama was yet again using up huge amounts of political capital to bail the Israelis out in the U.N. But when have trivial facts like that made a difference?
We already know that Perry is a real man with real baytzim who can handle a 25-inch mezuzah. He's as tough as they come. He has already made it clear to the Chairman of Federal Reserve that the chairman has "almost" committed treason ("almost treason" is probably still a capital offense) and will be shown the door as soon as Perry takes over. In addition, he has warned Chairman Bernanke not to show his face in Texas unless he wants the kind of "ugly (violent) reception" normally reserved for gay men, terrorists, traitors, and almost traitors in that patriotic state.
If the Tea Party and its tactics are the wave of the American political present and future and Netanyahu, Lieberman, and Danon are the same in Israel, then the ties and similarities between our governments, level of discourse, and commitment to Jewish and democratic values have, in fact, never been more clearly aligned. And none of the other candidates can hold a candle (Havdolah, Yahrtzeit, Shabbat, Chanukah, or otherwise) to Perry when it comes to being a perfect American partner for the Right wing coalition that now governs Israel and the Jewish religious leaders there.
For some of my fellow Jews, that might a cause for celebration.
For the rest of us, not so much.
That was before I knew about all his close Jewish friends and his great, unshakable support for Israel. But he truly became my BCF (Best Chaver Forever) when I learned from this article in today's Jewish Daily Forward that Perry changed Texas law to allow gonga mezuzahs of more than two feet in length (batteries optional) to be installed on condominium door frames. We all know that size matters--particularly when it comes to mezuzot--and it's nice to see that Perry believes in taking care of his friends and co-religionists who share his refutation of the theory of evolution.
That and more can be found in the article which is a treasure trove of good news for Jewish voters and which also features a picture that is suitable for framing.
Perry's obvious love for Israel and the Jewish people as well as his astute diplomatic skills have also been on display during the last month. Prior to the U.N. speeches by Netanyahu, Abbas, and Obama, Perry held a news conference with Likud Knesset leader Danny Danon who is bringing a bill to a vote next week calling for Israel to annex the entire West Bank and end all this foolish talk about a Palestinian state once and for all.
Perry honed in on President Obama's "arrogant" attitudes toward Israel and repeatedly criticized Obama's tactics of "appeasement" toward the Palestinians--a subtle yet skillful attempt to conjure up illusions of Neville Chamberlain appeasing that bad guy in Germany a few decades ago.
Of course this news conference was taking place as Obama was infuriating the Palestinians with his strong speech supporting Israeli rights, Netanyahu was praising Obama and stating that our president deserved a "medal of honor" for his strong and instantaneous efforts to save those trapped in the Israeli embassy in Cairo, and Obama was yet again using up huge amounts of political capital to bail the Israelis out in the U.N. But when have trivial facts like that made a difference?
We already know that Perry is a real man with real baytzim who can handle a 25-inch mezuzah. He's as tough as they come. He has already made it clear to the Chairman of Federal Reserve that the chairman has "almost" committed treason ("almost treason" is probably still a capital offense) and will be shown the door as soon as Perry takes over. In addition, he has warned Chairman Bernanke not to show his face in Texas unless he wants the kind of "ugly (violent) reception" normally reserved for gay men, terrorists, traitors, and almost traitors in that patriotic state.
If the Tea Party and its tactics are the wave of the American political present and future and Netanyahu, Lieberman, and Danon are the same in Israel, then the ties and similarities between our governments, level of discourse, and commitment to Jewish and democratic values have, in fact, never been more clearly aligned. And none of the other candidates can hold a candle (Havdolah, Yahrtzeit, Shabbat, Chanukah, or otherwise) to Perry when it comes to being a perfect American partner for the Right wing coalition that now governs Israel and the Jewish religious leaders there.
For some of my fellow Jews, that might a cause for celebration.
For the rest of us, not so much.
Friday, September 2, 2011
Buy Good Stocks and Live a Long Time--Lessons Learned From Irene, the Debt Crisis, and TV
For reasons discussed in a series of emails (available upon request), Kristen and I left Aspen last Friday to fly directly into the teeth of Hurricane Irene where we were repeatedly assured by the news media we would face certain death. It was a case of choosing between staying alive, or missing her father's 70th birthday party, and Kristen made it pretty clear that life would not be worth living for me going forward if we missed the party (which was canceled as soon as we landed).
But I digress. This piece is about the stock market and lessons learned.
First let's talk about what we have learned about the news media in general and TV news in particular.
On a broad range of issues, it is clear that given their huge investment in 24-7 coverage, news media's top priority is no longer keeping us better informed. It is now about keeping all of us as frightened and/or angry as possible all the time. It is a lesson that they learned from politicians over the years. Going negative works if your goal is to attract attention.
Let's start with our widely reported debt crisis. Actually, the U.S. doesn't have a debt crisis. A debt crisis is when you owe a lot of money and can't get anyone to lend you any more. The U.S. owes a ton of money, but a whole variety of investors are lined up to loan us more at lower and lower rates. That is despite the threat of the Tea Party Congressmen to make the U.S. default on its debts and promises, the equally irresponsible decision of Obama to cave in to those tactics, and the subsequent downgrade of our credit rating. The net effect of all that was to cause buyers of our debt to loan us even more money at even lower rates.
What we do have is a structural problem, well known to millions of Americans from their personal lives, of spending way more money than we are taking in. That needs to be addressed by finding ways to take in more money and spend less. But the U.S. is not bankrupt by any definition nor are we out of money.
Yet the media treated it as an "end of days" scenario that would kill the stock market and life as we know it as well as causing our borrowing costs to immediately go through the roof.
Without missing a beat, the media obsession transitioned to the European debt crisis and the pending implosion of all their banks.
Then focus shifted to the Middle East and the Arab Spring. We were told that the overthrow of murderous dictators (and our longtime allies) like Mubarak and Assad and Qaddafi would destroy stability and oil supplies in that part of the world and it would kill the stock market and life as we know it. Apparently, the theory is that freedom and democracy are just too messy when they come too suddenly and we were better off when the thieving and vicious despots ran that part of the world.
Just when the Libya story was reaching a climax, reporting from the entire region stopped for a solid week as Hurricane Irene became the only story worth reporting. We were told that the entire eastern seaboard was going to be washed away and life as we know it would never be the same.
I know because I'm still here in Connecticut since all the flights were preemptively canceled for days to accommodate the end of the world which never happened—again.
Do you notice a trend here?
It seems as though whatever happens and wherever it happens in the world today, the story line is always the same. This is really scary and the end of life as we know it. You should be very afraid and sell all your stocks.
The other trend, again because of the desire to keep us glued to our TVs and computers nonstop, is to make investors believe that it is no longer a good idea to buy good companies and hold them for a long time. We are told that we have to be proactive and trading in and out of the markets constantly in order to protect ourselves. And, of course, watch the markets like a hawk every minute of the day to know what and when to buy and sell and buy and sell.
I couldn't disagree more in general and particularly right now.
It is true that our country and much of the world has behaved irresponsibly over the last decade. Spending needs to be cut and tax revenues need to be raised. It is true that high levels of unemployment and underemployment in the U.S. are a huge problem. It is true that the slash and burn ideology-driven political tone in Washington is making it difficult to enact constructive policies. It is true that there are financial crises in Europe and elsewhere that are very frightening. There are and have been real challenges that are worthy of concern.
Like my clients, I want to invest long-term money in assets that offer the best chance for preservation of buying power, future income, and capital appreciation.
But unlike most of the pundits and a lot of investors, I believe that buying gold at $1,900 an ounce and loaning money to the government for 10 years at 2 percent interest or putting it in the bank at zero percent interest is not the way to be safe and prudent.
Unlike CNBC (whose most popular shows are now called "Mad Money" and "Fast Money" (which should speak volumes about their priorities), I continue encourage investors NOT to be very proactive in their trading and check the value of their accounts six times a day (or six times an hour for some).
What is getting lost in the popular discussion is the fact that in the face of all that has happened during the last few years, hundreds of companies are now making record profits, sitting on record amounts of cash, have little debt, and are paying ever-rising dividends that are far higher than the returns available from "safe" alternatives.
Several of my clients contacted me over the last month and asked what I was doing to protect their accounts. I told them I was keeping them invested in what I believe to be profitable, high yielding and/or potentially fast growing companies that are projecting good earnings going forward and are benefiting from macro-world trends that are not changing. I honestly believe that those are not only the best places to be going forward, but are also the safest places to be if your goal is to maintain or grow your net worth and buying power during a period of unprecedented deficits and political dysfunction.
Yes, August was a terrible month for the stock market. Most averages dropped 15 percent or more during just a few weeks. It happens. On average, in normal times, the market suffers a 20 percent or greater correction once every two years. When that occurs, it is not a "crash." It is simply the market being the market.
And when that happens, it is generally an opportunity to pick up great companies at good valuations —not the last chance to get out before the end of the world and life as we know it.
But I digress. This piece is about the stock market and lessons learned.
First let's talk about what we have learned about the news media in general and TV news in particular.
On a broad range of issues, it is clear that given their huge investment in 24-7 coverage, news media's top priority is no longer keeping us better informed. It is now about keeping all of us as frightened and/or angry as possible all the time. It is a lesson that they learned from politicians over the years. Going negative works if your goal is to attract attention.
Let's start with our widely reported debt crisis. Actually, the U.S. doesn't have a debt crisis. A debt crisis is when you owe a lot of money and can't get anyone to lend you any more. The U.S. owes a ton of money, but a whole variety of investors are lined up to loan us more at lower and lower rates. That is despite the threat of the Tea Party Congressmen to make the U.S. default on its debts and promises, the equally irresponsible decision of Obama to cave in to those tactics, and the subsequent downgrade of our credit rating. The net effect of all that was to cause buyers of our debt to loan us even more money at even lower rates.
What we do have is a structural problem, well known to millions of Americans from their personal lives, of spending way more money than we are taking in. That needs to be addressed by finding ways to take in more money and spend less. But the U.S. is not bankrupt by any definition nor are we out of money.
Yet the media treated it as an "end of days" scenario that would kill the stock market and life as we know it as well as causing our borrowing costs to immediately go through the roof.
Without missing a beat, the media obsession transitioned to the European debt crisis and the pending implosion of all their banks.
Then focus shifted to the Middle East and the Arab Spring. We were told that the overthrow of murderous dictators (and our longtime allies) like Mubarak and Assad and Qaddafi would destroy stability and oil supplies in that part of the world and it would kill the stock market and life as we know it. Apparently, the theory is that freedom and democracy are just too messy when they come too suddenly and we were better off when the thieving and vicious despots ran that part of the world.
Just when the Libya story was reaching a climax, reporting from the entire region stopped for a solid week as Hurricane Irene became the only story worth reporting. We were told that the entire eastern seaboard was going to be washed away and life as we know it would never be the same.
I know because I'm still here in Connecticut since all the flights were preemptively canceled for days to accommodate the end of the world which never happened—again.
Do you notice a trend here?
It seems as though whatever happens and wherever it happens in the world today, the story line is always the same. This is really scary and the end of life as we know it. You should be very afraid and sell all your stocks.
The other trend, again because of the desire to keep us glued to our TVs and computers nonstop, is to make investors believe that it is no longer a good idea to buy good companies and hold them for a long time. We are told that we have to be proactive and trading in and out of the markets constantly in order to protect ourselves. And, of course, watch the markets like a hawk every minute of the day to know what and when to buy and sell and buy and sell.
I couldn't disagree more in general and particularly right now.
It is true that our country and much of the world has behaved irresponsibly over the last decade. Spending needs to be cut and tax revenues need to be raised. It is true that high levels of unemployment and underemployment in the U.S. are a huge problem. It is true that the slash and burn ideology-driven political tone in Washington is making it difficult to enact constructive policies. It is true that there are financial crises in Europe and elsewhere that are very frightening. There are and have been real challenges that are worthy of concern.
Like my clients, I want to invest long-term money in assets that offer the best chance for preservation of buying power, future income, and capital appreciation.
But unlike most of the pundits and a lot of investors, I believe that buying gold at $1,900 an ounce and loaning money to the government for 10 years at 2 percent interest or putting it in the bank at zero percent interest is not the way to be safe and prudent.
Unlike CNBC (whose most popular shows are now called "Mad Money" and "Fast Money" (which should speak volumes about their priorities), I continue encourage investors NOT to be very proactive in their trading and check the value of their accounts six times a day (or six times an hour for some).
What is getting lost in the popular discussion is the fact that in the face of all that has happened during the last few years, hundreds of companies are now making record profits, sitting on record amounts of cash, have little debt, and are paying ever-rising dividends that are far higher than the returns available from "safe" alternatives.
Several of my clients contacted me over the last month and asked what I was doing to protect their accounts. I told them I was keeping them invested in what I believe to be profitable, high yielding and/or potentially fast growing companies that are projecting good earnings going forward and are benefiting from macro-world trends that are not changing. I honestly believe that those are not only the best places to be going forward, but are also the safest places to be if your goal is to maintain or grow your net worth and buying power during a period of unprecedented deficits and political dysfunction.
Yes, August was a terrible month for the stock market. Most averages dropped 15 percent or more during just a few weeks. It happens. On average, in normal times, the market suffers a 20 percent or greater correction once every two years. When that occurs, it is not a "crash." It is simply the market being the market.
And when that happens, it is generally an opportunity to pick up great companies at good valuations —not the last chance to get out before the end of the world and life as we know it.
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