Sunday, June 8, 2008

I Don't Want To Brag, But....

The scenario for the presidential election that I predicted three months ago is now moving into its next phase and so far everything is unfolding exactly as predicted.

On April 22 (The Media Has It All Wrong--As Usual), I wrote that the Democratic primary race was over and that Obama had won. The math had become unforgiving for Clinton. The news media's addiction to the race made them unwilling and unable to admit that so we suffered through six more weeks of meaningless primaries and false suspense. But now, belatedly, we are moving on to the McCain-Obama matchup.

My other prediction seven weeks ago was that the election will be a blowout. Obama will trounce McCain in a landslide.

Most polls show the two candidates running about even and we can watch the cable news pundits go over the red state-blue state scenarios and show how close the election is and how either candidate can win. Argument in favor of McCain is based on the premise that a large number of Americans will find Obama unacceptable and that many Clinton supporters are so angry about Hillary's loss that they will move to the dark side in protest.

It has become pretty clear in just the five days since Obama clinched the nomination that neither of those scenarios will play out.

Since the moment he clinched the nomination a few days ago, Obama has moved quickly and decisively to take control of the Democratic National Committee operations and install some of the bright and capable people who engineered his amazing upset in key positions. He is using his large money advantage to continue to campaign aggressively and a wide variety of state and regions. Most important, he has ignored the negative campaigning against him and remained totally positive with his message of hope and change.

As I predicted, it didn't take long once McCain started to come back into focus for Americans to realize what a weak candidate he will be. Like Bush, he is a terrible speaker and often looks confused and uncomfortable on television. On the substance side, he is strongly pro-life and anti-choice and has voted along with Bush 95% of the time over the last four years. Since becoming the Republican nominee he has flip-flopped on many of the courageous stands he took that earned him his "maverick" status. For example, several years ago he opposed the Bush tax cuts claiming it was "immoral and wrong" to give the wealthiest Americans a tax cut while we had men and women fighting a war that we couldn't pay for. Now he favors making those "immoral" tax cuts permanent.

Now that Clinton is on the Obama team and supporting him strongly, her supporters will quickly follow. For all of their talk about leaving the party or voting for McCain, most Democratic women would rather cut off their hand than use it to vote for a guy who is anti-choice, favors tax cuts for the rich, and has been a strong supporter of the Iraq war from the outset.

As I said before, there is zero chance that Obama will ask Hillary to be his vice-president but she has no choice except to support him vigorously after she behaved so badly during the last month of the primaries.

I also predict that Obama will take McCain's advice and visit Iraq during the coming months. He will also stop in a number of other countries as well and be greeted like a rock star. Most Americans only vaguely remember what it's like to have their president loved and respected by our friends overseas. That will just add to his momentum on the way to a landslide win in November.

Remember, you heard it all here first.

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